Symtoms of a Complex

Sunday, August 27, 2006

Post hoc hurricane forecast


As we get into the busy part of the Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Ernesto is the first real threat to the Florida gulf coast. The image from Wikipedia shows all tropical cyclones (ie hurricanes/typhoons) from 1985 to 2005. The strength of the storm is color coded where blue represents a tropical depression and red represents category 5 hurricane.

I'm really annoyed. The local meteorologists have been saying not to rely on the computer models of the hurricane forecast tracks, yet it is the first thing that they show on their TV broadcast and all of the major local stations have graphics of it on their website. But most of the graphics online are tiny, illegible, and non-expandable. (The National Weather Service has much better hurricane forecast graphics anyways.)

Why are you posting it if it's not even readable? If you think that the models may adversely affect people's decision on evacuation and such, don't show them. But since you do show them you have to make sure that they are clearly presented.

And the worst part is that all of the local stations will brag on how good their software is at tracking the path of the hurricane after it has already passed. Tch...

So if I post this photo with accurate hurricane tracks from the past on this blog, then any hurricane tracks that I post will also be accurate. Huh...?

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